AGP Executive Report

Falklands and Investment: Washington has reportedly urged Javier Milei’s government to freeze or amend a proposed bill imposing sanctions on companies involved in Falklands resource development, warning it could affect US firms and deter trade and investment. Digital Payments: Apple’s Tap to Pay on iPhone has launched in Argentina through Mercado Pago, letting merchants accept contactless payments without a separate terminal. Mining: Industry voices say mining is attracting Argentina’s strongest foreign-investor interest, as the country pursues expansion in lithium and copper. Debt Pressure: Argentina has paused local dollar bond sales as a major debt repayment wall approaches, while the IMF is pressing for a broader VAT base. Trade: Argentina and the US have amended a trade agreement in a bid to secure ratification and strengthen investment ties.

Economic Outlook: Economy Minister Luis Caputo touted a strong recovery and dismissed recession concerns, but the cost of Argentina’s basic basket is rising faster than inflation, keeping pressure on household budgets. Argentina also tops the 2026 list of countries with the largest IMF debts, while Milei is weighing a China swap to meet 2027 financing needs. Trade and Investment: Milei and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio agreed to strengthen trade ties, as Argentina and the US amended a trade deal in a bid to secure ratification. Energy and Mining: Vaca Muerta’s boom is bringing high wages but exposing talent shortages. Argentina is also among eight countries launching plans under a World Bank initiative to expand critical-minerals business and build local industries. Corporate Deals: Telecom Argentina accepted Metrotel’s $450 million offer for Movistar assets, a major deal in the country’s telecom market.

Energy: Vaca Muerta is producing more than 915,000 barrels of oil a day, with output nearing one million by year-end. Oil export sales reached $5.72 billion in January–July, up 59.2% year on year, though boomtown Añelo still faces infrastructure gaps and worker shortages. Critical Minerals: The World Bank plans to expand its critical-minerals business fivefold over five years; Argentina is among eight countries that have launched plans to build local industries and retain more value from resources. Trade & Financing: President Javier Milei and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio agreed to strengthen trade ties. Argentina tops the 2026 ranking of countries with the largest IMF debts and is looking at a China swap to help cover 2027 financing needs. Inflation: September prices rose 1.9%, bringing annual inflation to 33.4%. Mining: Rio Tinto says heavy rainfall in Argentina has affected lithium output.

US Trade and Investment: President Javier Milei and Secretary of State Marco Rubio discussed ways to deepen trade, attract investment and expand security cooperation, following Milei’s Washington visit. Debt Pressure: Argentina owes the IMF $56.8 billion, the largest balance of any country, while the government has paused local dollar-bond sales as a major repayment burden approaches. The IMF is also urging Buenos Aires to broaden VAT collection by ending exemptions. Growth Outlook: The IMF cut its 2026 growth forecast to 2.1%, even as September inflation came in at 1.9% month on month. Economy Minister Luis Caputo, meanwhile, says recovery is strong and dismisses recession concerns. Investment: Buenos Aires-based Giraffe Bio raised $6.4 million to develop biotech and AI tools for copper extraction, while Rio Tinto reported rain-related effects on lithium output in Argentina.

Economic Outlook: Economy Minister Luis Caputo touted a strong recovery and dismissed recession concerns, even as the IMF cut Argentina’s 2026 growth forecast to 2.1% and urged the government to broaden VAT by ending exemptions. September inflation was 1.9%, bringing the annual rate to 33.4%. Debt and Markets: Argentina paused local dollar-bond sales as a debt wall approaches, keeping financing pressures in focus. Trade and Investment: The US and Argentina amended an agreement aimed at securing trade and investment, while EU and Mercosur textile groups launched a dialogue on market access and supply chains. Corporate Moves: Telecom Argentina accepted Metrotel’s $450 million offer for Movistar assets. Biotechnology startup Giraffe Bio raised $6.4 million to develop AI-enabled copper extraction. Energy Dispute: Argentina asked an international tribunal to halt the Sea Lion oil project near the Falklands, escalating a dispute that could cloud investment in the offshore field.

Debt and Tax: Argentina paused local dollar-bond sales as a large debt wall approaches, while the IMF urged the government to broaden VAT by ending exemptions. The Fund also cut its growth outlook for the country. Trade and Investment: Buenos Aires and Washington amended their trade deal in a bid to secure ratification and encourage investment. Corporate Deals: Telecom Argentina accepted Metrotel’s $450 million offer for Movistar assets, reshaping the telecom market. Mining Innovation: Giraffe Bio raised $6.4 million to use biotechnology and AI to extract more copper, as miners look to develop Argentina’s resource potential.

Debt and Markets: Argentina has paused local dollar-bond sales as yields climbed above 12%, complicating plans to cover about US$25 billion in hard-currency payments due next year. Economy Minister Luis Caputo says a currency swap with China remains an option if borrowing stays too costly. Trade: Argentina and the US amended their trade agreement in a bid to secure ratification, as President Javier Milei courts US investment. Tax Policy: The IMF is pressing Buenos Aires to broaden the VAT base by ending exemptions, a move that could affect prices and business margins. Mining: Investment is spreading beyond lithium, with major miners and explorers pursuing copper, gold and other critical minerals. Telecoms: Telecom Argentina accepted Metrotel’s US$450 million offer for Movistar assets. Public Spending: Thousands of students and university staff marched against funding cuts; public university spending fell about 41% in real terms in the first half of 2026 compared with the same period in 2023.

Energy Dispute: Argentina has asked an international tribunal to halt the Sea Lion oil project near the Falklands; the UK says it will protect companies involved. Trade & Financing: Buenos Aires and Washington amended their trade deal in a bid to secure ratification, while Argentina is considering a China swap to meet 2027 financing needs. Inflation & Tax: September inflation was 1.9%, taking the annual rate to 33.4%. The IMF is also urging Argentina to broaden the VAT base by removing exemptions as part of fiscal reforms. Milei’s Reform Push: Opposition lawmakers are seeking to overturn Milei’s sweeping deregulation decree, with a court ruling restoring limits on foreign ownership of rural land adding to the dispute. Mining & Exports: Rio Tinto kept its iron-ore outlook steady but expects lithium output near the low end of its range, citing a slower ramp-up at Sal de Vida in Argentina. Mendoza’s Bodega Argento, meanwhile, plans new organic and Fairtrade wine launches in UK retailers.

Debt Financing: Economy Minister Luis Caputo said Argentina could tap its currency swap with China if it cannot refinance dollar bonds due in 2027, as investor concerns push up sovereign risk. Falklands Oil Dispute: Buenos Aires has asked an international maritime tribunal to suspend the UK-authorized Sea Lion project, developed by Rockhopper and Navitas, arguing that drilling infringes Argentina’s rights. Inflation and Growth: September inflation was 1.9%, taking the annual rate to 33.4%; the IMF has cut its 2026 growth forecast for Argentina to 2.1%. Household Costs: Argentina’s basic food basket is rising faster than inflation, adding pressure on household budgets.

Falklands Oil Dispute: Argentina has asked an international tribunal to halt UK-authorized oil activity near the Falklands, while Britain says the project remains lawful and is protecting companies involved. Land Ownership: A UBA report raised concerns that strategic rural properties in Chubut were marketed to foreign buyers during a brief suspension of land-purchase restrictions; researchers say they cannot confirm whether any sales went through. Mining: Rio Tinto expects Argentine lithium output to fall short of its earlier plans, citing heavy rainfall at Olaroz and Fenix and slower progress at Sal de Vida. Economic Outlook: The IMF cut Argentina’s 2026 growth forecast to 2.1%, even as September inflation held below 2% for a second month, at 1.9%; annual inflation was 33.4%.

Inflation: Argentina’s consumer prices rose 1.9% in September, keeping monthly inflation below 2% for a second month. Annual inflation eased to 33.4%, though housing and utilities costs climbed 3.1%. Growth Outlook: The IMF cut Argentina’s 2026 growth forecast to 2.1%, as a stronger peso, tight monetary policy and austerity curb activity. Falklands Oil: Buenos Aires asked an international tribunal to halt UK-authorised exploration near the islands, escalating a dispute over the Sea Lion project, which holds an estimated 1.7 billion barrels. Britain says it will protect companies involved. Digital Payments: Russian fintech MTS has added QR-code payments in Argentina, letting My MTS users pay at local merchants from ruble accounts with automatic currency conversion.

Growth Outlook: The IMF cut Argentina’s 2026 growth forecast to 2.1% from 3.5%, citing weaker activity and tight financial conditions. It now sees inflation at 32.5%, up from its April estimate of 30.4%. Investment Push: Javier Milei is heading to Washington to court U.S. investors and reinforce ties with Donald Trump. Mining: Patagonia Gold reported high-grade gold and silver at its Calcatreu project in Río Negro, while Green Shift agreed to sell its Los Altares uranium project for cash, shares and a royalty. Trade: Italian exports to Mercosur rose 21.1% in May, the first month of the EU trade deal’s provisional application; Argentina and Brazil account for more than 90% of Italy’s trade with the bloc.

Investor Outreach: President Javier Milei heads to Washington this week to court U.S. investors and promote his economic reforms, with meetings involving business leaders on the agenda. Lithium: Lake Resources won Catamarca’s environmental approval for its Kachi project, clearing a major permitting hurdle; engineering work comes next, before any final investment decision. Financial Policy: The central bank sees no near-term progress on crypto banking measures, citing economic fragility, and is focusing on fintech oversight and fraud prevention. Business Shifts: Buenos Aires’ water company has been privatized after 20 years under state management, while reports point to growing Argentine interest in Chinese car brands and a burgeoning data-centre sector.

Autos: Chinese brands captured 10% of Argentina’s vehicle sales in August, up from about 2% in late 2025, helped by tariff exemptions for electric and hybrid imports. Their rapid growth is pushing established automakers to respond with new models. Energy and Mining: Argentina’s lithium sector advanced as Lake Resources secured environmental approval for its Kachi project, clearing the way for engineering work, while Posco completed a second lithium plant. New analysis also points to growing data-centre investment and the country’s potential to become a major energy supplier. Finance: The Central Bank has rejected near-term integration of crypto services into the banking system. Lending remains weak as banks channel funds into government debt. Infrastructure: The government agreed to return water utility AySA to private management in a US$340 million deal, ending two decades of state control.

Trade Links: Emirates SkyCargo is adding seven weekly cargo flights across Brazil, Argentina, Colombia and Ecuador, expanding regional freight capacity. Financial Policy: Argentina’s central bank rejected near-term crypto banking integration; separately, it is disputing claims of a US$1 billion loss on gold hedges as auditors scrutinize its gold reserves. Energy & Tech: Argentina’s energy resources could support ambitions to become a global supplier, while the country is also drawing investment amid the data-centre boom. Privatization: State water utility AySA is set to return to private ownership in a reported US$340 million deal, after two decades under state management. Economic Outlook: Weak August activity has revived recession concerns and led markets to cut 2026 growth expectations. Mining: POSCO has completed a second upstream lithium plant in Argentina, though the country’s broader lithium ambitions still face extraction hurdles.

Digital Finance: Argentina’s central bank says crypto services will remain barred from banks and payment systems for now, citing economic fragility; any change may wait until a second Milei term. Energy: The sector posted a $7.8 billion surplus in January–August 2026, beating the full-year 2025 total, as Vaca Muerta drives record exports. Growth: Weak August activity has revived technical-recession concerns and prompted markets to mark down 2026 growth prospects. Mining Investment: POSCO completed a second lithium plant, while RIGI approval advances Glencore’s copper project. Oil and Reserves: Argentina is preparing a legal escalation over the UK-linked Sea Lion oil project as Rockhopper expands its stake; separately, the BCRA has challenged claims of a $1 billion loss on gold hedges amid a dispute over reserve reporting.